Over the last 30 days neurosurgeon and AAOS keynote speaker Ben Carson, M.D. has emerged as an early leader in the GOP Presidential Primary. Dr. Carson’s campaign for the White House has been gaining steam with likely Republican voters, while front-runners Jeb Bush and Scott Walker have slipped. Florida Senator Marco Rubio has also gained strength to wedge himself solidly into the top four.
The latest National RealClearPolitics (RCP) average poll shows that Dr. Carson is now favored by 9.4% of likely Republican voters which is striking range to Bush at 13.8%, Walker at 11.4% and Rubio at 11%. When he announced his candidacy on May 4, 2015, Carson was at 4.8% in the RCP average.
Iowa Caucuses
For likely Iowa Republican caucus attendees, Carson is tied with Bush at 8.5% for fifth place. Walker (18.3%), Rubio (9.8%), former Iowa winner Mike Huckabee (9.5%) and Senator Rand Paul (9.3%) lead the pack. Carson’s favorability ratings have also been climbing in Iowa. The most recent poll of Iowa caucus-goers, conducted by The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg, showed that 56% of conservative activists view Carson favorably, while only 15% view him negatively.
Popularity = Cash
Dr. Carson’s popularity with conservative activists is translating into money. Carson campaign officials, according to a recent Reuters story, say Carson is receiving a surge in small-dollar financial donations, up to 185, 000 so far and on track for 200, 000 by the end of the month, with an average of $52 apiece. Campaign finance expert Brendan Glavin told Reuters that 185, 000 was a big number if all were unique donors. In 2011, President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign said it had 493, 697 unique donors.
Post-Iowa
In the two contests after Iowa, the primaries of New Hampshire and South Carolina, Dr. Carson has some work to do. He’s at 5.4% in New Hampshire and 7.4% in South Carolina. Bush leads Walker by 5% in New Hampshire, while the pair is running neck and neck in South Carolina. Donald Trump, at 10%, is a wild card in New Hampshire and favorite-son, Senator Lindsey Graham is at 11% in South Carolina.
Calming Rhetoric
Perhaps most importantly, Dr. Carson hasn’t committed any reported gaffes over the past few months dealing with homosexuality or Obamacare. In fact Dr. Carson, unlike most of his Republican opponents, was conciliatory after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down state laws against gay marriage. Huckabee, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Walker and Cruz all expect civil disobedience (but do not condone it) or support for constitutional amendments to replace Supreme Court members.
Dr. Carson told RCP that he would not support such efforts because “you always have the obligation to uphold the laws of the land.”
Get to the Debates
At this point, with at least 16 announced or soon-to-announce credible Republicans (ok, take Trump off the list) running for the GOP nomination, the main goal is to stay in the top ten of the field. The first Republican debate of the season is scheduled for August 6, 2015. Only the top ten candidates will be invited.
