Over 75 vaccine candidates to address COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV-2, are in the pipeline according to the World Health Organization (WHO) as of April 20, 2020.
The majority of these, however, remain far from clinical trials. Wells Fargo Securities’ Health Care Team has begun to track the progress of the 10 most advanced vaccine candidates. Six vaccine candidates are expected to have phase 2 results available by the end of 2020, which would allow them to be granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) before the end of the year. Wells Fargo points out that even with positive clinical data, production of enough doses of vaccine for widespread application is still unclear and projections depend on how much vaccine protein is required per dose.
The Centrality of COVID Vaccines to a Return to Normal
Despite relaxation of lockdown or shelter-in-place orders in numerous jurisdictions the threat of acquiring COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, also known as SARS-CoV-2, is still present. The disease has the potential to cause severe illness even in healthy individuals. Additionally, the high fatality rate among at-risk populations, such as the immune compromised, elderly, and those with cardiovascular or respiratory co-morbidities, makes a return to normalcy frightening for many.
To be confident that one will not contract the disease, or spread it to a loved one, the population needs to achieve herd immunity, which is when enough people have immunity that outbreaks are minimized, and infection cannot spread uncontrollably. The best way to achieve herd immunity is through development and widespread adoption of a vaccination program. Vaccines have helped to eliminate, or virtually eliminate, countless disease that once caused significant numbers of fatalities, such as smallpox, measles, polio, and tetanus.
The problem with the current pandemic is that nearly the entire global population is naïve to SARS-CoV-2, and the virus is not similar enough to other viruses that already have vaccines developed. A naïve population means that the virus can spread easily through exposure as no one had immunity to it from prior exposure.
