JAMA’s Post Infection Immunity Study
An important factor that must be considered is the durability of immunity provided either through prior infection by the virus, or vaccination. A publication in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) in May 2020 by epidemiologists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) titled, “COVID-19 and Post infection Immunity: Limited Evidence, Many Remaining Questions” suggests that continued antibody presence is unclear.
The authors point out that no reinfections have yet been confirmed, but reinfection has occurred in other common human coronaviruses, which cause minor respiratory illness. Antibodies to SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV, the viruses that caused epidemics of SARS in 2004 and MERS in 2012, were found up to 2-3 years after infection.
However, because the viruses have not been observed since the initial epidemics, it is not clear if antibodies were protective against reinfection. The authors conclude that current evidence suggests that at least temporary immunity is conferred through infection. Presumably vaccination would also confer immunity. If immunity is found to be temporary, a regular vaccination schedule will be necessary, putting additional stress on the production of new vaccine. Distribution of the vaccine will already be prioritized to particular occupational and health-status groups, potentially leaving “non-essential” or not at-risk individuals without a vaccine for months or years after one is finally approved.
Operation Warp Speed
On May 15, 2020, President Trump announced “Operation Warp Speed” to develop and deliver a vaccine by the end of 2020. Former head of vaccines at GlaxoSmithKline plc, Moncef Slaoui, has been selected to lead the mission. He was quoted as saying that he is “Confident that we will be able to deliver a few hundred million doses of vaccine by the end of 2020,” after having seen preliminary data for an undisclosed vaccine candidate.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID), said during a hearing before the U.S. Senate HELP Committee on Tuesday, “There’s no guarantee that the vaccine is actually going to effective…. I still feel cautiously optimistic that we will have a candidate that will give some degree of efficacy.”
While there is no guarantee that the U.S. plan to have a vaccine approved and in production by the end of the year there are several candidates that, if successful, will be available during 2021. It will likely take several months more for the majority of the population to receive the vaccine as world-wide allocation and distribution is sure to be another bureaucratic stumbling block that has yet to be determined.
With consideration of function and the capabilities of the manufacturer and partners, Wells Fargo expects that production of the Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, and Novavax vaccine candidates could well be the greatest.
